Calculated Risks
by Gerd Gigerenzer
How to understand medical tests, DNA evidence and probabilities without being fooled, through natural frequencies. Essential for patients and jurors.
Read it if…
you want to understand what a positive test actually means.
See the book →
Skip it if…
you want general decision theory.
Try instead: Think Like a Rocket Scientist →
Three things you will actually use
- Positive test does not mean disease.
- Use natural frequencies.
- Ask about base rates.
Do this first
Work through the mammogram example.
Our verdict
Understanding test results.
See the book →
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