Expert Political Judgment
by Philip E. Tetlock
Tetlock's twenty-year study of expert forecasts: experts barely beat chance, foxes beat hedgehogs, and fame correlates with worse accuracy. Academic and rigorous; the foundation for Superforecasting.
Read it if…
you want the original research on why confident experts are usually wrong.
See the book →
Skip it if…
you want the accessible version; read Superforecasting.
Try instead: On the Edge →
Three things you will actually use
- Foxes beat hedgehogs.
- Confidence and accuracy are inversely related in pundits.
- Keep score.
Do this first
Start recording your own predictions with probabilities and score them.
Our verdict
The rigorous foundation.
See the book →
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