Mastering the Market Cycle
by Howard Marks
Marks on the cycles that drive markets, economic, profit, credit, psychological, and how to position by assessing where we are rather than predicting where we are going. It is repetitive and could be shorter, but the central skill, reading the temperature of the market, is taught nowhere else as clearly.
Read it if…
you want to understand why markets overshoot and how to lean against it.
Skip it if…
you want a buy-and-hold plan and prefer not to think about cycles.
Three things you will actually use
- We cannot predict, but we can prepare and position.
- Extremes revert; the crowd is wrong at the turns.
- Aggressiveness and defensiveness should vary with the cycle.
Do this first
Write where you believe the current market is in the cycle and what evidence you are using; revisit in a year.
Our verdict
Repetitive but uniquely useful.
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