The Black Swan
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Taleb on rare, high-impact, retrospectively predictable events and our blindness to them: the narrative fallacy, the ludic fallacy, Mediocristan versus Extremistan, and why most experts are frauds in domains ruled by randomness. It is brilliant, digressive and insulting by turns; the ideas have reshaped how serious people think about risk.
Read it if…
you want to understand why models fail and how to position for the unexpected.
Skip it if…
you dislike arrogance in authors; Taleb supplies it in bulk.
Three things you will actually use
- Do not predict; prepare.
- Limit downside; keep exposure to positive surprises.
- Distrust narratives built after the fact.
Do this first
Identify one area of your life exposed to a rare, catastrophic loss, and reduce the exposure this month.
Our verdict
Important, infuriating and worth it.
Compare with other Mindset books
Fooled by Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · Mindset
Sharp and readable; his most accessible.
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Nudge
Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein · Mindset
Influential and practical; environment design.
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Predictably Irrational
Dan Ariely · Mindset
Entertaining and instructive, with one caveat.
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