Superforecasting
by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Tetlock's research on the ordinary people who out-predicted intelligence analysts: they break questions down, start from base rates, update in small increments, think in probabilities and keep score. It is the best book on how to think about the future, rigorous and readable, with a practical appendix of commandments.
Read it if…
you make forecasts, in business, investing or planning, and want to make better ones.
Skip it if…
you want certainty; the book teaches calibrated uncertainty.
Three things you will actually use
- Start from the outside view, the base rate.
- Update often and in small steps.
- Keep score; feedback is how forecasting improves.
Do this first
Make three forecasts with percentages this week and write them down to score later.
Our verdict
Rigorous and practical; a thinking upgrade.
Compare with other Mindset books
Fooled by Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · Mindset
Sharp and readable; his most accessible.
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Nudge
Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein · Mindset
Influential and practical; environment design.
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