Thinking in Bets
by Annie Duke
A former poker professional on decision-making under uncertainty: separate decision quality from outcome quality ('resulting'), think in probabilities, use groups to check your reasoning, and consult your future self. It is practical, honest about human bias and free of jargon, and the poker framing is used lightly.
Read it if…
you judge your decisions by how they turned out and want a better standard.
Skip it if…
you want a formal decision method; this is about mindset and habits.
Three things you will actually use
- Good decisions can have bad outcomes; judge the process.
- Say 'I am 70 percent sure' instead of 'I am sure'.
- Do a pre-mortem: imagine failure and ask why.
Do this first
For your next decision, write the probability you assign to each outcome before you choose.
Our verdict
Clear, practical and honest about uncertainty.
Compare with other Mindset books
Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner · Mindset
Rigorous and practical; a thinking upgrade.
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Fooled by Randomness
Nassim Nicholas Taleb · Mindset
Sharp and readable; his most accessible.
CLICK TO SEEBrowse all Mindset book reviews or get the free Reality Code Cheat Sheet.
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